Corn Market Review for 6/29/2010
September Corn finished down 9 at 333 1/4, 1/2 up from the low and 9 3/4 off the high. December Corn closed 8 3/4 lower at 344. This was 3/4 up from the low and 9 1/2 off the high.
Corn maintained its role as leader to the downside among the grains today with the December contract posting its seventh straight loss. This took the December contract to a new contract low and a new contract low close. Corn lost ground sharply to soybeans early in the session, save for those spread losses were trimmed into the close. Traders are looking for an boost of 400-500,000 acres in the USDA’s corn acreage number tomorrow morning, and that may have also added to the pressure in corn. The newest 6-10 time forecast calls for above normal temperatures to the east of eastern Minnesota and eastern Iowa and from Kentucky on north. The highest temperatures are expected from Michigan to the north and east. Precipitation is forecast above normal from eastern Indiana on west, and including the entire Mississippi Valley and the Delta. This would include some of the critical pollination period in many major growing areas. But, in the meantime, forecasts call for dry weather with mild temperatures into the start of the holiday weekend. Traders said that fears of a slowdown in economic growth in the US and China may possibly eventually result in reduced fuel usage that may possibly possibly trim expectations of ethanol usage, and possibly trim profit margins for ethanol producers. Footing levels for corn at the Gulf were steady to steady this morning on the weak start in futures.
September Rice closed 0.22 lower at 9.99, 0.82 up from the low and 0.01 off the high.
Wheat Market Commentary Report for 6/29/2010
September Wheat finished down 8 at 457, 7 2 up from the low and 3/4 off the high. December Wheat closed down 8 1/2 at 485 1/4. This was 1 3/4 up from the low and 7 off the high.
December wheat participated in a broad sell off in commodity and equity markets today, making an initial low for the time to start the time session followed by a insignificant new low prior to the close. The selling was credited to outside market pressure, including a higher dollar, along with a very favorable harvest weather forecast through the aim of the week in both hard and soft red winter wheat areas. But, the 6-10 time forecast calls for above normal precipitation in the Plains and in the western soft red winter wheat belt. Feed millers in the Philippines are tendering for 25,000 tonnes of feed wheat on an otherwise light time for wheat-specific news. Traders are looking forward to tomorrow morning’s Planted Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports. They expect jump wheat acreage to be down by just over 150,000 acres from the March Planting Intentions report. Wheat stocks are expected to be up nearly 280 million bushels from last year’s total of 657 million.
December Oats finished down 9 1/2 at 253. This was 13 3/4 off the high and 1/4 up from the low.
Soybean Complex Market Analysis for 6/29/2010
August Soybeans finished down 9 at 931 1/2, 14 3/4 off the high and 1 1/2 up from the low. November Soybeans closed down 6 1/2 at 912. This was 5 1/4 up from the low and 12 off the high.
August Soymeal finished 2.1 lower at 281.2. This was 4.3 off the high and 2.2 up from the low.
August Soybean Smear with oil closed 1.01 lower at 36.1, 1.07 off the high and equal to the low
November soybeans traded in seesaw fashion today, albeit with a lower bias. This started with a sharp drop to start the time session that took the November contract below yesterday’s lows. Prices quickly rebounded to higher on the time, save for then sagged over the remainder of the session before finishing near yesterday’s lows. Meal gained on smear with oil again today, although it gave in trade some of its gains on a late sell off. Early in the session soybeans gained sharply on corn, save for those gains were also trimmed into the close. Traders credited the early weakness in soybeans to the strong consensus for a dry forecast in the Midwest for the remainder of this week, along with a very negative fit up in outside markets. Temperatures are expected to rise into the weekend on a push of warm air from the west and SW. Japan’s Agency of Agriculture reported today that the country plans to import 3.44 million tonnes of soybeans in 2010. This is up 1.5% from last year. Traders are looking for a marginal boost in soybean acreage on tomorrow’s Planted Acreage report from the 78.1 million acres projected in March. June 1st Quarterly stocks are expected to fall just below 600 million bushels, just below the June 1, 2009 stocks which came in at 596 million.
With today’s commentary mostly about weather and the Grain Stocks and Planted Acreage reports, traders might want to take a peek at the commercial traders momentum. The Commercial Trader momentum can be tracked by using the Commodity Futures Trading Fee Stanchness of Traders reports. Our thought is that, in a value obsessed commodity futures market no lone knows honest value like the people who produce it or, have to use it. In fact, it is precisely their sense of value that provides the commodity market’s regular meanderings that swing traders like so much. Let’s face it, producers know when their product is overvalue and it should be sold just as well as aim line users know when they should be stocking up at low prices. Therefore, trader should be able to incorporate this vital information into their commodity trading system.
This blog is circulated by Andy Waldock. Andy Waldock is a financial advisor, asset manager, trader, analyst and brokerfor Commodity & Derivative Advisors, located in Sandusky, Ohio. For that reason, Andy Waldock may have positions for himself, his customers, or his family in any commodity future market reviewed. The blog is meant to develop a dialogue and educate those with an interest in the commodity future markets. The commodity markets may not be suitable for all investors due to the high degree of leverage. There is substantial risk in investing in commodity futures. If you are interested in reading other published articles, commenting on his writings or subscribing to Andy’s blog, please stay http://blog.commodityandderivativeadv.com.
The daily commentaries provide a analysis of each commodity’s traded price endeavor, an analysis of the factors that influenced price endeavor, a review of any reports released that time, and a look yet to be at the next time’s schedule. Market commentaries for corn, wheat, soybeans, silver and gold are provided by CME Group.
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